Today’s release of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) provides some positive trends for crop production in the United States for 2012/13.
U.S. feedgrain supplies for 2102/13 are projected slightly higher with small increases for corn production and higher projected corn imports. Forecast corn production is raised 19 million bushels with a 0.3-bushel increase in the corn yield to122.3 bushels per acre.
Projected corn import increases of 25 million bushels reflect expectations for more shipments, particularly into the Southeast, which usually relies heavily on supplies from the eastern Corn Belt.
Corn-ending stocks are projected 28 million bushels higher at 647 million bushels. The season-average farm price for corn is lowered to $6.95 to $8.25 per bushel, 20 cents lower at the midpoint. This reflects a lower-than-expected September price and continuing weakness in cash and deferred futures prices over the past month.
Globally, 2012/13 corn output is raised 0.7 million tons to 839.7 million tons. This is projected to be the second-highest on record supported by record foreign output.
U.S. soybean production is forecast at 2.971 billion bushels, up 111 million from last month. Soybean yield is forecast at 39.3 bushels per acre, up 1.5 bushels per acre as several states reap the benefit of late-season rainfall. Soybean crush is raised 20 million bushels to 1.56 billion based on increased soybean meal export prospects. Soybean exports are raised 80 million bushels to 1.345 billion, reflecting larger supplies and stronger sales through October. Soybean ending stocks are forecast at 140 million bushels, up 10 million from last month.
Soybean oil supplies for 2012/13 are raised this month based on increased production outweighing lower beginning stocks.
Soybean and soybean product prices are all reduced this month. The season-average soybean price range is projected at $13.90 to $15.90 per bushel, down 35 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price range is pegged at $455 to $485 per short ton, down $15 on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 51 to 55 cents per pound, down 2 cents on both ends.
Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 462.1 million tons, up 4.4 million tons from last month. Global soybean production accounts for about 75% of the increase with larger crops in the United States and Ukraine.
The forecast for 2013 U.S. red meat production is reduced from last month reflecting lower beef and pork production. Pork production is forecast lower than last month based on slightly lower expected weights.
The beef and pork production forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2012 are lowered. Hog weights are reduced below year-earlier levels.
Pork exports are raised for 2012 and 2013, according to the WASDE report.
Cattle prices are raised for both 2012 and 2013, reflecting tight fed cattle supplies. Hog prices are reduced slightly for the fourth quarter but the forecast for 2013 is unchanged.