Today DowJones released its pre-report surveys of analyses of Friday’s USDA livestock and crop reports, summarized by the CME Group’s Daily Livestock Report.
The reports indicate:
- A continuation of the slow growth of the U.S. swine breeding herd. The average estimate of +0.7% from a year ago would be the largest year-on-year growth rate since March 2008, but only represents 0.1% higher than the actual rate from the March report.
- Continued growth in the market herd; 1.3% more market hogs on June 1 would place the inventory at 60.291 million or the largest June 1 market herd since 2009.
- Farrowings and farrowing intentions remain low relative to the breeding herd, following a pattern of the past few Hogs and Pigs Reports.
- Litter size growth is slowing. The 1.3% increase would be lower than last quarter’s 1.7% and much lower than the 2% average of the past four years.
- Only a slight gain of just under 100,000 in corn-planted acres vs. the Prospective Plantings report numbers from March.
- A total of 1.67 million more soybean acres. Early wheat harvests have encouraged what may be a record amount of double cropping.
- Lower corn and wheat stocks as of June 1. The reductions are expected to be 13% and 16%, respectively.