USDA’s Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade released Monday forecasts fiscal year 2014 exports valued at $137 billion, $3.9 billion below fiscal year 2013’s record high.
In contrast, the fiscal year 2014 forecast for combined livestock, poultry and dairy exports is increased $700 million to a record $31.8 billion on higher pork, dairy and beef exports.
U.S. agricultural imports are forecast to reach a record $109.5 billion, $5.7 billion higher than in fiscal year 2013.
These trade figures mean the U.S. agricultural trade surplus is expected to fall by $9.6 billion in fiscal year 2014 to $27.5 billion. The USDA report indicates this would be the smallest surplus since 2009.
In terms of the livestock trade, pork is forecast nearly $400 million higher to $5.5 billion, based mostly on higher prices, with strong demand coming from Mexico and some Asian markets.
Total livestock and dairy product imports in 2014 is reduced by $500 million, with lower beef and dairy imports offsetting higher pork and cattle imports, according to the USDA report.
Pork imports are projected to rise by $170 million, with an increase of 17,000 tons expected, mostly from Canada. Relatively high hog prices and softening feed prices are likely to increase farrowings in Canada next year, supporting higher exports by Canada.
At http://www.ers.usda.gov is the rest of the USDA trade outlook report.