Steve Meyer

Steve
Meyer
Vice President, Pork Analysis,
Express Markets Inc. Analytics
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Steve Meyer, vice president of pork analysis for Express Markets Inc. Analytics of Fort Wayne, Ind. Express Markets and EMI Analytics have been involved in price discovery and analysis for the broiler industry since 2003. They added similar capabilities for turkey in 2008 and have recently added market analysis of pork and beef markets to their product offerings in order to meet the broad information and knowledge needs of customers throughout the meat and poultry production, processing and marketing systems. In May of 2015, Meyer sold Paragon Economics to Express Markets Inc. He brings a wealth of experience in the livestock industry, having served as director of economics for the National Pork Producers Council (1993-2001), and held the same position for the National Pork Board from 2001 to October 2002. In that capacity, Steve provided economic counsel to producers and Pork Board staff and coordinated staff and consultants’ activities regarding meat industry production, price forecasts and the economic impact of pork production and processing. In addition, he administered NPPC programs dealing with marketing and pricing systems, structure, pork industry coordination and competitiveness. Previously, Steve served as a swine business specialist with Moorman Manufacturing Co., a sales representative with Dow Chemical and sales manager for an animal health and agricultural chemical distributor. In addition, he spent three years as an assistant professor in the agriculture economics department at the University of Missouri.

Articles
Hogs and pigs report a mixed bag of inventory numbers
The USDA’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs report's key numbers were a mixed bag with some inventory figures quite close to analysts’ pre-report expectations (which Steve Meyer interprets as information that was “in the market” at the time the report was released) and others differing pretty markedly.
Hog supplies plentiful

There’s not a lot of mystery as to why hog prices are weak:  There are LOTS of hogs out there! What is more the price impacts are pretty much on line with those supply gains.  No one wants to hear that but let’s investigate.

Outlook: Cloudy or a monsoon?

It has been an exciting and sometimes terrifying ride on the pork industry roller coaster the past few years. From the ethanol-fueled cost increases of the late 2000s to 2009’s H2N1 influenza crisis to the first real Midwest drought in 24 years to the heights of record prices in 2014, and now back to losses in the first quarter of 2015, the pork industry has seen just about everything. Or has it? Here are factors to watch for in the coming 18 months.

Improving demand key to higher prices

Given the reaction of Lean Hogs futures over the past two weeks, one would think the recent surge in slaughter was completely unexpected. As of Friday, LH futures had given back about $8 of the $10 rally we had seen since late-March. I don’t think anyone anticipated that sell-off but we have to remember that few expected the rally. I was sort of alone on that one. I do hope producers took advantage of the opportunity it availed.

U.S. pork exports starting to show life
U.S. pork exports showed signs of life in March, and have now roared upward in April.
Who will jump the ractopamine hurdle?
A hot topic at this week’s World Pork Expo will, no doubt, be ractopamine. A number of producers and packers have been looking at the efficiency-enhancing beta-agonist with skeptical minds and eyes recently as China has enforced its ban on product that contains ractopamine.
COOL pork retaliatory impacts depend on tariffs
Now that the WTO has ruled against the U.S. COOL program, Canada and Mexico will now be clear to impose retaliatory tariffs. That amount remains to be seen, but one press report said that figure was $900 million for Canada’s pork and beef sectors, while other estimates are in excess of $1 billion. Impact on the U.S. pork industry depends on the size of the tariffs and how long beef and pork remain on the list. It will also be very different for Canada and Mexico.
Don’t get greedy on hog market top side
If your balance sheet and/or intestinal fortitude are weak, and you have taken no protection on summer hogs, price some of them now. One-fourth to one-third sounds reasonable with the higher side recommended for anyone who just can’t stand risk either financially or psychologically.
Political decisions could impact hog market future
The pork industry will be involved in and closely observing three political situations for the remainder of 2015. All are critical to the industry’s future and all could have market impacts this year and beyond.
Market hogs with price level and risk in mind
When to pull the trigger on hog prices in the million-dollar question; a question producers need to ask themselves at least weekly. There are buyers offering real money every day for CME Lean Hogs futures contracts that effectively place a price on hogs to be delivered during some future period. It’s not an exact process but the opportunity is there.
No supply fears, pork needs to be pushed
Pigs are plentiful and are going to stay that way as long as PEDV is quiet in sow farms. Margins are there to make money even if retail and menu prices are lower. While fresh pork may not be the store traffic driver of beef or chicken, bacon and brats could have some significant impacts at this time of year.
Hog price rebound factors supplies
Lean Hogs futures continued their long, slow climb out of their deep hole last week and, at least for those contracts through August, are higher again on Monday. In fact, summer contracts are bumping $80 today.
February exports better, still lag ’14
February was another tough month for pork exports. That really isn’t news to anyone, but the truth is that exports were indeed better relative to January but still trail 2014 levels substantially.
Lean hogs futures react to report as expected
The March 27 quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report implies that there are going to be a lot more hogs on the market this year, compared to last year. Initially the market did not react harshly to these larger-than-normal year-over-year increases. They represent a return to pre-PEDV days and imply slaughter levels slightly larger than those of 2013 through the third quarter.
Beef remains a solace for pork market
Market factors make it prime time for retailers to start featuring pork, and in a big way, because there are plenty of pigs that will be making their way into the market.
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